Natural Alternatives International Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryPersonal Products Beta (adjusted)0.58 Intrinsic Value No headline value published yetWe haven't published a headline intrinsic value for this company yet. Our data-reliability standards weren't met. Method estimates are shown for reference. Market Price $1.48Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.2M Enterprise Value $18.7M Shares Outstanding 6M diluted All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Natural Alternatives International Inc. (NAII) is experiencing a strong top-line recovery, with Q3 fiscal 2026 net sales increasing 23% year-over-year to $35.5 million. However, the company continues to face severe profitability headwinds due to the underutilization of its state-of-the-art Carlsbad powder blending and packaging facility. This underutilization has resulted in persistent operating losses, with a net loss of $4.3 million ($0.72 per diluted share) in Q3 fiscal 2026. While the company has secured a new $31.0 million credit facility with Legacy Corporate Lending to improve liquidity and support anticipated sales growth, management expects to record a net loss for both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2026. A Hold recommendation is warranted until factory utilization stabilizes and a clear path back to profitability is established. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Major customers further reduce their forecasted sales or delay product launches, leading to prolonged underutilization of manufacturing capacities. Continued net losses erode stockholders' equity and strain the covenants of the newly established credit facility. Base CaseCentral scenario The company slowly improves factory utilization as new customer orders and product launches materialize in late calendar 2026. Net sales continue to grow at a double-digit rate, but high fixed overhead costs keep operating margins near break-even. Liquidity remains stable under the new Legacy Corporate Lending facility. Bull CaseUpside scenario Successful commercialization and market adoption of TriBsyn and CarnoSyn 4X across beverage, dairy, and medical nutrition categories, combined with improved capacity utilization at the Carlsbad facility, leading to a restoration of sustainable profitability and gross margin expansion. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |