National Vision Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $26.03median of 6 methods · middle span $22-$27based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $16.40Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 59% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+59%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.5B Shares Outstanding 82M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE) represents an attractive recovery and transformation play in the value optical retail segment. Following a significant stock price correction of over 30% since early 2026, the company's valuation has become highly compelling relative to its solid operational performance. Q1 2026 results demonstrated robust momentum with net revenue up 6.6% to $543.9 million and net income more than doubling to $31.2 million. The company's strategic pivot toward premium lens offerings (such as the Nikon Eyes partnership), store fleet optimization, and enhanced managed care penetration are driving ticket growth and margin expansion, offsetting softer cash-pay traffic. Reaffirmed FY26 guidance of $2.033B to $2.091B in revenue and adjusted EPS of $0.85 to $1.09 highlights management's confidence in sustaining this turnaround. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$28.73 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent macroeconomic headwinds further depress cash-pay customer traffic, and rising customer acquisition costs or marketing inefficiencies limit SG&A leverage. Comparable store sales growth slows to low single digits, and operating margins contract due to optometrist wage inflation. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully executes its store segmentation and premium lens strategies, driving mid-single-digit comparable store sales growth. Operating margins expand by approximately 100 basis points through SG&A leverage and cost discipline, allowing the company to meet the midpoint of its FY26 guidance. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |