National Presto Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)0.63 Intrinsic Value $73.66median of 5 methods · middle span $69-$104based on filings through 5 Jul 2026 Market Price $150.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 7.1M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Presto Industries Inc. (NPK) presents a unique combination of a stable, cash-rich balance sheet and a highly lumpy, defense-driven growth profile. The company's Defense segment has experienced massive backlog expansion, reaching approximately $1.75 billion at the end of 2025, which provides strong revenue visibility over the next 1.5 to 3.5 years. However, this growth is offset by severe margin pressure and operational challenges in its Housewares/Small Appliance segment, which suffered an operating loss in 2025 due to tariff surcharges and distribution center relocation costs. With sparse analyst coverage and a conservative capital allocation strategy focused on maintenance rather than aggressive expansion, the stock is best viewed as a low-volatility safety asset with limited near-term upside, justifying a Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $116.2620% Operational bottlenecks or supply chain disruptions delay defense shipments, leading to backlog stagnation or contract penalties. Meanwhile, persistent tariff surcharges and rising raw material costs cause deeper operating losses in the Housewares segment, eroding consolidated margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $131.8450% National Presto continues steady execution of its defense backlog, driving single-digit consolidated revenue growth. The Housewares segment remains stagnant or slightly down as it navigates supply chain transitions and tariff headwinds, while the company maintains its debt-free balance sheet and regular dividend payouts. Bull CaseUpside scenario $145.2030% The Defense segment successfully executes its aggressive delivery schedules, converting its massive $1.75 billion backlog into high-margin revenue faster than expected. Simultaneously, the Housewares segment successfully completes its transition out of China, mitigating tariff impacts and restoring historical profitability. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |