National Health Investors Inc Dossier
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SectorReal Estate IndustryREIT - Healthcare Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.69 Intrinsic Value $58.24median of 1 methodbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $65.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.2B Enterprise Value $4.5B Shares Outstanding 49.2M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Health Investors (NHI) is successfully executing a strategic pivot toward its Senior Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP), which is driving robust top-line growth and higher margins. The pending $560 million sale of its skilled nursing portfolio to National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) resolves long-standing lease maturity uncertainties, significantly deleverages the balance sheet, and provides substantial liquidity to fund accretive private-pay senior housing acquisitions. Supported by favorable aging demographics and a strong balance sheet, NHI is well-positioned to deliver attractive total shareholder returns. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$73.00 Mean target$82.75 High · most bullish analyst$91.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $73.00 Delays or increased transaction costs in the NHC portfolio sale, combined with persistent labor shortages and inflation in the senior housing sector, compress SHOP margins. Slow capital redeployment leads to temporary FFO dilution, dragging the stock down toward its lower support levels. Base CaseCentral scenario $82.75 Matches the consensus meanNHI successfully closes the NHC portfolio sale on July 1, 2026, and steadily deploys capital into its pipeline of senior housing investments. SHOP performance remains resilient despite minor near-term operating headwinds, and the company maintains its stable $0.92 quarterly dividend, aligning with consensus expectations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $91.00 Accelerated redeployment of the $560 million NHC sale proceeds into high-yield SHOP assets (exceeding 8.0% yields) drives double-digit FFO and FAD growth. Favorable demographic tailwinds lead to rapid occupancy recovery and margin expansion in the senior housing sector, pushing the stock toward the high end of analyst targets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |