National Grid Plc ADR Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryMulti-Utilities Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $75.15median of 5 methods · middle span $71-$89based on filings through 30 Sep 2025 Market Price $75.33Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $75.7B Shares Outstanding 1B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend29 May 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Grid enters FY2026/27 with 99.9% reported network reliability, 10.9% FY2025/26 asset growth and a five-year framework targeting at least GBP 70 billion of investment, around 10% annual asset growth and 8–10% underlying EPS growth. These attributes support a constructive long-term view, but the unusually large delivery programme creates material execution, regulatory and financing dependencies. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$71.00 Mean target$90.89 High · most bullish analyst$99.50 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $71.0024% Project delays, adverse regulatory timing, higher financing burdens or weaker operational performance cause cumulative investment or underlying EPS growth to fall below management's framework. This would undermine the expected regulated-growth profile. Base CaseCentral scenario $90.8958% Matches the consensus meanThe company broadly delivers its at-least-GBP-70-billion programme, produces asset growth around management's 10% framework and keeps underlying EPS growth within the stated 8–10% range, while normal project and regulatory variability limits upside. Bull CaseUpside scenario $99.5018% National Grid delivers the capital programme on or ahead of schedule, sustains reliability near the FY2025/26 level, and achieves the upper portion of its 8–10% underlying EPS growth framework. Timely regulatory recovery and disciplined project execution would strengthen confidence in durable regulated growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |