National Beverage Corp Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Staples IndustryBeverages - Non-Alcoholic Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value $37.56median of 6 methods · middle span $33-$40based on filings through 1 Aug 2026 Market Price $29.69Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.8B Enterprise Value $2.7B Shares Outstanding 93.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend13 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ) remains a highly profitable, financially sound, and debt-free player in the non-alcoholic beverage sector, anchored by its flagship LaCroix brand. However, the company faces persistent top-line headwinds, stagnant volume growth, and intense competition in the mature U.S. sparkling water market. While its strong cash reserves ($314 million) and disciplined cost management provide solid downside protection, the lack of near-term growth catalysts and high insider ownership limit immediate upside, justifying a Hold rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$33.00 High · most bullish analyst$33.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.0015% Competitive promotional activity from larger beverage giants squeezes LaCroix's shelf space and market share. Simultaneously, rising aluminum costs and Midwest premiums pressure margins, while volume declines accelerate, leading to a contraction in profitability and a lower valuation multiple. Base CaseCentral scenario $33.0060% Matches the consensus meanRevenue remains relatively flat to slightly up (low-single-digit growth) as price increases balance soft volume trends. Gross margins stabilize around 37-38% due to disciplined cost management and favorable product mix. The company continues to compound cash without aggressive expansion, maintaining its defensive profile. Bull CaseUpside scenario $33.0025% A successful rollout of new flavor innovations (e.g., PineApple CocoNut, Strawberry Peach) combined with expanding distribution in club and convenience channels drives a return to positive volume growth. Moderating aluminum and freight costs, alongside disciplined pricing, expand gross margins toward historical highs, prompting a valuation re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |