Natera Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.34 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $408.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $58.9B Enterprise Value $57.9B Shares Outstanding 143.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Natera entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 37.7%, total test volume increased 22.4%, oncology volume increased 57.2%, and management raised full-year revenue guidance. Signatera also gained meaningful regulatory and clinical validation through FDA companion-diagnostic approval, an NCCN Category 1 treatment recommendation, Japanese approval, and EU IVDR certification. The counterweight is that Natera remains loss-making, reported gross margin benefited materially from revenue-estimate true-ups, and international commercialization still depends on pricing, reimbursement, and execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$193.00 Mean target$330.64 High · most bullish analyst$375.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $193.0020% The downside case would be indicated by revenue below $2.85 billion, gross margin below 64%, failure to produce positive 2026 cash flow, or delayed pricing and reimbursement for new markets. Persistent operating losses, weaker reimbursement realization, or slower conversion of regulatory milestones into clinical volume would undermine the execution thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $330.6455% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes delivery within the stated 2026 revenue and gross-margin ranges, positive full-year cash flow, continued oncology-volume expansion, and measured commercialization of recently approved indications. Bull CaseUpside scenario $375.0025% The upside case requires revenue near or above the top of the $2.85-$2.91 billion range, gross margin near or above 66%, positive cash flow, continued rapid clinical-MRD adoption, and successful commercialization following the FDA, NCCN, Japanese, and EU milestones. These outcomes would strengthen evidence that Signatera is becoming embedded in treatment decisions across multiple geographies. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |