Nasdaq Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)0.98 Intrinsic Value $93.05median of 6 methods · middle span $79-$194based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $91.67Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $51.2B Enterprise Value $59.5B Shares Outstanding 568.9M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Nasdaq entered the second half of 2026 with broad-based operating momentum: second-quarter net revenue increased 15%, Solutions revenue increased 17%, organic ARR increased 12%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS increased 25%. The recurring technology platform, growing Index franchise, and management's 9%-12% medium-term Solutions outlook support a constructive long-term view. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$84.00 Mean target$110.07 High · most bullish analyst$135.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $84.0020% The bear case would develop if Solutions growth falls below the 9% lower bound, expense growth exceeds the 8% upper bound without commensurate revenue growth, Index ETP AUM retreats below $1 trillion, or LeveL Markets encounters material approval, integration, compliance, cybersecurity, or client-retention problems. Base CaseCentral scenario $110.0755% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Solutions growth normalizes from the second quarter's 17% rate toward management's 9%-12% medium-term range, recurring revenue remains durable, expense growth remains within the 5%-8% medium-term framework, and Index and Financial Technology continue expanding without material integration disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $135.0025% The bull case requires Solutions growth to remain near or above the top of management's 9%-12% medium-term range, continued double-digit organic ARR growth, successful realization of the $100 million cross-sell run-rate target, and sustained Index ETP AUM above $1 trillion. Successful execution of the LeveL Markets transaction and Always-On strategy would add another growth vector. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |