Nanobiotix ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Nanobiotix ADR

NANOEuronext Paris

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.87

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $27.90Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $1.4B

Shares Outstanding 50.8M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Nanobiotix S.A. is a late-clinical stage biotechnology company pioneering physics-based radioenhancers (JNJ-1900 / NBTXR3) to improve radiotherapy outcomes in solid tumors. The investment thesis is anchored by a highly validating global partnership with Johnson & Johnson (J&J), which has assumed operational and financial sponsorship of the pivotal Phase 3 NANORAY-312 trial in head and neck cancer. A recent protocol amendment streamlining NANORAY-312 eliminates the interim analysis to accelerate the timeline to a final analysis at 335 events. Furthermore, early Phase 2 CONVERGE data in Stage 3 NSCLC demonstrated an impressive 85.7% objective response rate (ORR) and 57.1% complete response rate (CRR) in its initial cohort. Financially, a successful €86.1 million follow-on offering in May 2026 has dramatically extended the company's cash runway into 2029, mitigating near-term dilution risks and providing a solid foundation to unlock the platform's multi-billion dollar potential.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$29.61

Mean target$45.15

High · most bullish analyst$69.94

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$29.6120%

The streamlined NANORAY-312 trial fails to show statistically significant improvements in overall survival or progression-free survival, or exhibits unexpected safety concerns. J&J deprioritizes the JNJ-1900 program, halting milestone payments. The company's single-asset dependency severely penalizes its valuation, and the cash runway is depleted faster than expected due to clinical trial expansions.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$45.1550%

Matches the consensus mean

NANORAY-312 progresses smoothly toward its final analysis at 335 events, with data expected in 2027. Early clinical signals in lung, pancreatic, and esophageal cancers are gradually validated in expanded cohorts. The company maintains its cash runway into 2029 using the May 2026 capital raise and receives moderate milestone payments from J&J, keeping the stock aligned with consensus analyst targets.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$69.9430%

The pivotal Phase 3 NANORAY-312 trial meets its primary endpoints of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) ahead of schedule under the streamlined protocol. J&J aggressively commercializes JNJ-1900 globally, triggering up to $200 million in near-term development/regulatory milestones and double-digit royalties. Concurrently, the Phase 2 CONVERGE trial in NSCLC continues to show exceptional efficacy, and the Curadigm Nanoprimer platform signs multiple high-value pharmaceutical co-development deals.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong validation and financial backing from global healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson.
Streamlined Phase 3 NANORAY-312 protocol accelerating the path to final clinical data.
Highly encouraging early Phase 2 CONVERGE data in Stage 3 NSCLC (85.7% ORR, 57.1% CRR).
Robust cash runway extended into 2029 following the €86.1 million follow-on offering in May 2026.
Broadly applicable physics-based mechanism of action (radioenhancement) scalable across multiple solid tumor types.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration risk with extreme dependency on the clinical success of a single lead asset (JNJ-1900 / NBTXR3).
Efficacy and safety data for NSCLC are based on a very small initial cohort (7 patients) and may not be predictive of larger trials.
Milestone payments and clinical timelines are heavily dependent on decisions and execution by partner J&J.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of NANORAY-312 to meet its primary endpoints of overall survival or progression-free survival in the final analysis.
Termination or material downscaling of the global licensing agreement by Johnson & Johnson.
Severe safety or toxicity signals emerging in the expanded Phase 2 CONVERGE lung cancer trial.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.