Myriad Genetics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.41 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.06Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $388.3M Enterprise Value $453.2M Shares Outstanding 94.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Myriad Genetics is navigating a transitional phase characterized by robust volume growth in its core Cancer Care Continuum and Mental Health segments, offset by persistent operational headwinds in its Prenatal Health business. While the company has reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $860 million to $880 million, near-term profitability remains under pressure due to elevated operating expenses, asset impairment charges, and high debt service costs. The appointment of Raj Jampa as Chief Technology Officer in June 2026 highlights a strategic focus on modernizing digital infrastructure and scaling AI capabilities to drive operational efficiency. However, until the company demonstrates a clear path to GAAP profitability and stabilizes its prenatal testing volumes, a neutral stance is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$4.00 Mean target$6.25 High · most bullish analyst$10.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0020% The bear case reflects prolonged disruption in the Prenatal Health segment due to ongoing customer friction from the order management system transition. Competitive pricing pressures from larger peers like Natera and Guardant Health compress gross margins. Furthermore, high interest rates on the $125.0 million term loan combined with negative free cash flows strain liquidity, potentially forcing dilutive equity raises or covenant renegotiations. Base CaseCentral scenario $6.2555% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes Myriad successfully achieves its 2026 revenue guidance of $860 million to $880 million, supported by mid-single-digit growth in hereditary cancer testing and strong double-digit growth in the GeneSight mental health platform. Prenatal health volumes gradually stabilize throughout the second half of 2026. Profitability remains constrained in the near term, with adjusted EBITDA landing within the guided range of $37 million to $49 million, while GAAP net losses narrow sequentially. Bull CaseUpside scenario $10.0025% The bull case is driven by rapid market adoption of the newly launched Precise Molecular Residual Disease (MRD) assay, targeting a $21 billion addressable market. Additionally, successful commercialization of Prolaris + AI and international expansion (such as the companion diagnostic approval of MyChoice CDx in Japan) accelerate revenue growth. Operating leverage kicks in as technology modernization under the new CTO reduces processing costs, leading to positive adjusted EBITDA and a faster-than-expected return to GAAP profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |