MYR Group Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

MYR Group Inc

MYRGNASDAQ

SectorIndustrials

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Beta (adjusted)1.21

Intrinsic Value $400.73median of 6 methods · middle span $169-$1,540based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $297.92Price as of 1 Oct 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $4.6B

Enterprise Value $4.5B

Shares Outstanding 15.6M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MYR Group is a premier specialty electrical contractor uniquely positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds in grid modernization, renewable energy integration, and the rapid buildout of AI-driven digital infrastructure. The company's record Q1 2026 results, highlighted by a milestone $1.00 billion in quarterly revenue and a record $2.84 billion backlog, demonstrate robust execution and strong demand across both its Transmission & Distribution (T&D) and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) segments. While near-term valuation multiples are elevated and recent insider selling warrants caution, the pending acquisition of Valley Holdings I, Inc. (expected to close in 3Q26) will significantly expand its West Coast C&I footprint and add over $400 million in annual revenues, supporting a strong long-term growth trajectory.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets6 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$295.00

Mean target$392.50

High · most bullish analyst$445.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$295.00

Supply chain disruptions or labor shortages delay project execution, leading to cost overruns on fixed-price contracts. Integration challenges with the Valley Holdings acquisition or a broader macroeconomic slowdown in nonresidential construction dampens bidding activity, compressing margins and leading to backlog contraction.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$392.50

Matches the consensus mean

MYR Group continues steady execution of its record backlog, supported by secular electrification trends and its new 5-year master service agreement with Xcel Energy. The Valley Holdings acquisition closes successfully in 3Q26, contributing to C&I segment scale. Operating margins remain within targeted ranges (T&D at 8%-11%, C&I at 6%-9%), and revenue grows at a double-digit pace.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$445.00

Accelerated federal funding from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and unprecedented demand for data center electrification drive higher-than-expected contract wins. The Valley Holdings acquisition integrates seamlessly ahead of schedule, yielding immediate margin expansion and cross-selling synergies. Operating margins exceed the high end of targets (T&D > 11%, C&I > 9%), driving significant EPS upside.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Secular tailwinds from grid modernization, renewable energy integration, and AI data center buildouts.
Record backlog of $2.84 billion providing strong multi-year revenue visibility.
Strategic acquisition of Valley Holdings expanding West Coast scale and adding $400M+ in annual revenues.
Robust balance sheet with $163.2M in cash and $460.5M in available borrowing capacity.

Key Investment Risks

Stretched valuation with a trailing P/E near 49x, well above historical averages.
Potential project execution risks and margin compression on fixed-price contracts.
Integration risks associated with the large-scale acquisition of Valley Holdings.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in backlog or a sharp contraction in gross margins below 11%.
Failure to close or successfully integrate the Valley Holdings acquisition in 3Q26.
Significant delays or cancellations of major utility capital expenditure programs.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.