Mueller Water Products Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $24.08median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$36based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $21.50Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.4B Enterprise Value $3.3B Shares Outstanding 157.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mueller Water Products (MWA) is a leading North American water infrastructure player with a strong competitive moat driven by high switching costs and entrenched municipal specifications. The company is undergoing a highly successful operational turnaround, highlighted by the transition to its state-of-the-art brass foundry in Decatur, Illinois, which is driving record gross and EBITDA margins. Despite these strong fundamentals and raised guidance, the stock trades at a relative discount to its high-growth peers, offering an attractive entry point for long-term investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$25.00 Mean target$31.00 High · most bullish analyst$35.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects potential headwinds from prolonged high interest rates dampening residential construction, combined with persistent inflationary pressures and tariff costs. Operational disruptions or transitional bottlenecks at the brass foundry could compress margins, while elevated inventory levels continue to drag on free cash flow conversion. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes steady municipal and utility spending on aging water infrastructure, allowing Mueller to sustain its pricing power and realize ongoing efficiencies from its new brass foundry. Net sales are expected to meet the raised FY2026 guidance of $1.47B to $1.49B, with adjusted EBITDA margins stabilizing around 24.5%. Valuation multiples are projected to re-rate upward as free cash flow conversion improves. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |