Mueller Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMetal Fabrication Beta (adjusted)1.09 Intrinsic Value $39.83median of 6 methods · middle span $31-$57based on filings through 27 Jun 2026 Market Price $61.32Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 35% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $13.6B Enterprise Value $12.2B Shares Outstanding 221.2M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mueller's operating evidence is constructive: management reported strengthening commercial, industrial, and electrical demand, strong backlogs, unit-volume growth across all three reporting segments, and expected near-term contributions from two 2026 acquisitions. A Hold recommendation is appropriate because copper averaged substantially above the prior-year level, construction demand remains rate-sensitive, and the company identifies incomplete raw-material cost pass-through, product substitution, imports, and market-volume changes as material variables. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$80.00 Mean target$80.00 High · most bullish analyst$80.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $80.0020% Housing or commercial-construction demand weakens while copper and energy costs remain elevated, customer price adjustments lag input inflation, and substitution or import pressure reduces unit volumes and price-cost spreads. Base CaseCentral scenario $80.0050% Matches the consensus meanDemand remains generally firm and the acquired metals businesses contribute, but elevated copper costs and mixed construction indicators constrain incremental improvement. Bull CaseUpside scenario $80.0030% Commercial, industrial, and electrical demand continues to strengthen; strong backlogs convert into shipments; Bison Metals Technologies and Chicago Extruded Metals contribute as management expects; and customer price adjustments preserve spreads despite elevated copper costs. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |