M&T Bank Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

M&T Bank Corp

MTBNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $217.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026

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Market Cap $31.4B

Enterprise Value $27.5B

Shares Outstanding 144.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date16 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

M&T entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter diluted EPS reached $5.32, net income increased 14% year over year, average loans grew across all major categories, nonaccrual loans declined 23% year over year, and the efficiency ratio improved to 52.8%. The counterbalance is capital deployment: the estimated CET1 ratio declined to 10.19% as loan growth and repurchases consumed capital, while borrowings increased.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$224.00

Mean target$255.97

High · most bullish analyst$300.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$200.0019%

Funding or competitive pressure compresses net interest margin, recent commercial-real-estate growth produces renewed criticized-loan migration, net charge-offs return above the recent five-quarter range, and capital constraints materially reduce repurchases. Those developments would weaken earnings momentum and justify a lower valuation.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$255.9758%

Matches the consensus mean

Loan and fee-income growth continue at a moderate pace, net interest margin remains broadly stable, and credit costs normalize without reversing the improvement in nonaccrual loans. Capital distributions become more measured as CET1 approaches management's operating floor.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$290.0023%

Broad-based loan growth persists, the net interest margin remains near 3.70%, fee businesses continue expanding, credit losses stay below recent historical levels, and operating leverage sustains returns near the strong second-quarter level. Continued share-count reduction would further support per-share results.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 diluted EPS was a record $5.32, up 25% from $4.24 in the year-earlier quarter.
Average loans increased $3.0 billion sequentially across all major loan categories, while second-quarter taxable-equivalent net interest income increased 5% year over year.
Credit indicators improved: nonaccrual loans declined 23% year over year, and annualized net charge-offs fell to 0.23% from 0.32%.

Key Investment Risks

The estimated CET1 ratio declined to 10.19% from 10.33% sequentially and 10.99% one year earlier as loan growth and repurchases consumed capital.
Commercial real-estate loans increased $1.1 billion during the second quarter, creating a need to monitor whether renewed growth changes criticized-loan and loss trends.
Average borrowings rose to $20.8 billion from $16.8 billion sequentially, while interest-bearing-liability costs increased to 2.36%, making funding mix and deposit competition important margin variables.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.