MSCI Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryFinancial Exchanges & Data Beta (adjusted)1.14 Intrinsic Value $716.93median of 5 methods · middle span $694-$805based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $545.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $39.6B Shares Outstanding 72M diluted Next Earnings Date20 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MSCI's operating franchise remains strong: second-quarter 2026 retention was 95.3%, organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth was 8.1%, and Index organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth reached 11.1%. The outlook is tempered by pronounced segment dispersion, including 3.2% organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth in Sustainability and Climate and 6.6% in Analytics. The completed First Street acquisition expands MSCI's physical-climate-risk capabilities but introduces integration execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$570.00 Mean target$692.06 High · most bullish analyst$760.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $570.0020% Retention falls below the prior-year quarterly comparator, organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth decelerates from 8.1%, market-linked Index fees weaken with capital markets, and recent acquisitions fail to improve slower-growing businesses. Under this path, weaker recurring momentum and integration demands would reduce confidence in MSCI's growth durability. Base CaseCentral scenario $692.0660% Matches the consensus meanRetention remains durable near the second-quarter 2026 level, companywide organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth remains around the current 8.1% pace, and Index continues to lead while Analytics and Sustainability and Climate improve only gradually. First Street broadens the product set without causing material disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $760.0020% Retention remains at or above the second-quarter 2026 level, Index maintains double-digit organic recurring-subscription Run Rate growth, product-launch momentum converts into additional recurring contracts, and First Street integration accelerates Sustainability and Climate growth. MSCI's record asset-based-fee Run Rate and broad client momentum would reinforce the upside operating case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |