MPLX LP Dossier
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SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Storage & Transportation Beta (adjusted)0.65 Intrinsic Value $41.76median of 5 methods · middle span $38-$66based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $56.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $57.1B Enterprise Value $80.5B Shares Outstanding 1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MPLX offers a constructive operating-growth outlook supported by natural-gas and NGL infrastructure projects, management's expectation for mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, and expected distribution increases of 12.5% in both 2026 and 2027. Second-quarter operating evidence was mixed: operated gathering and fractionation volumes increased year over year, while total pipeline throughput and operated gas-processing volumes declined. The resulting stance is Hold because execution prospects are favorable but project timing, higher planned growth spending, weaker pipeline volumes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$54.00 Mean target$61.92 High · most bullish analyst$73.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $54.0017% Multiple project delays, weaker utilization, or adverse commodity, regulatory, customer, or financing conditions prevent expected infrastructure investments from producing timely growth. Continued declines in pipeline or processing volumes and failure to deliver expected distribution growth would materially weaken the thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $61.9258% Matches the consensus meanMPLX substantially executes its disclosed project schedule and produces moderate growth, with expanding gathering and fractionation activity offset partly by softer pipeline throughput and gas-processing volumes. Distribution growth proceeds broadly as expected, but execution and spending requirements constrain rerating potential. Bull CaseUpside scenario $73.0025% Projects scheduled across the Permian, Marcellus, and Gulf Coast enter service on time, utilization increases, and natural-gas and NGL growth sustains management's mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA outlook. Delivery of the expected 12.5% distribution increases in 2026 and 2027 strengthens the total-return case. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |