Mount Logan Capital Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks Beta (adjusted)0.52 Intrinsic Value $4.30median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $3.38Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $37.8M Enterprise Value $126.5M Shares Outstanding 11.2M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend21 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mount Logan Capital Inc. (MLCI) represents a highly asymmetric micro-cap opportunity, trading at a significant discount (~0.6x) to its post-tender book value. Following its business combination with 180 Degree Capital (TURN), the stock has suffered from technical selling pressure due to a low proration factor (28%) in its $15 million self-tender offer, which forced unsatisfied sellers into the open market. Fundamentally, the company is successfully executing a transition toward a high-margin, asset-light alternative asset manager and insurance solutions platform. With pro forma Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) on track to reach a $12 million run-rate in 2026 through high-margin initiatives (such as the SOFIX/Yieldstreet asset acquisition and new SMA mandates), the current market capitalization of ~$45 million severely undervalues the business. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.03 Mean target$8.54 High · most bullish analyst$9.04 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $2.50 The Yieldstreet transaction faces regulatory or integration delays, slowing FRE growth. Additionally, the legacy LTC block at Ability Insurance experiences adverse claims development, requiring capital injections from the parent company and leading to further non-cash goodwill or asset impairments. Base CaseCentral scenario $7.81 MLCI successfully closes the Yieldstreet transaction in Q3 2026, bringing pro forma run-rate FRE to approximately $12 million. The insurance segment maintains stable, positive SRE, and the legacy LTC block remains well-capitalized without further non-cash impairments. The stock steadily re-rates toward its post-tender book value as earnings quality improvements become visible over consecutive quarters. Bull CaseUpside scenario $9.43 The integration of the Yieldstreet assets and new SMA mandates occurs ahead of schedule, driving pro forma FRE beyond $12 million in 2026. Simultaneously, the Insurance Solutions segment continues its strong turnaround, with Spread-Related Earnings (SRE) expanding as reinvestment yields rise. Technical selling pressure completely dissipates, and the market re-rates MLCI to a peer-group multiple of 1.0x book value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |