Motorola Solutions Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Motorola Solutions Inc

MSINYSE

SectorInformation Technology

IndustryCommunications Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.91

Intrinsic Value $422.79median of 6 methods · middle span $323-$491based on filings through 4 Jul 2026

Market Price $448.03Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 6% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $74.1B

Enterprise Value $81.9B

Shares Outstanding 167.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend17 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Motorola Solutions entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter sales increased 13%, backlog reached $15.6 billion, and management raised full-year revenue and non-GAAP EPS guidance. The investment case is balanced by elevated memory and supply-chain costs, a material nonrecurring tariff-refund benefit in the reported margin, and execution risk following the $1.5 billion D-Fend acquisition.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$476.00

Mean target$522.73

High · most bullish analyst$550.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$476.0019%

Backlog growth stalls, elevated memory and component costs pressure margins, or acquisition integration and commercialization fall short of expectations.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$522.7357%

Matches the consensus mean

Motorola Solutions delivers approximately its updated 2026 outlook while backlog remains supportive and D-Fend integration proceeds without a material disruption. Margin comparisons normalize after the second-quarter tariff-refund benefit, while higher memory costs remain manageable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$550.0024%

Sustained order strength converts the record second-quarter backlog into revenue, operating leverage offsets input-cost pressure, and D-Fend gains adoption through Motorola Solutions' global public-safety and enterprise channels.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record second-quarter backlog of $15.6 billion, up 11% year over year, provides substantial demand visibility.
Second-quarter sales grew 13%, non-GAAP EPS grew 24%, and management raised its full-year 2026 revenue and earnings outlook.
The completed D-Fend acquisition adds differentiated counter-drone technology that Motorola Solutions intends to scale through its global customer relationships.

Key Investment Risks

Elevated memory costs and continuing global supply-chain volatility could pressure product costs, inventory, and margins.
The $1.5 billion D-Fend acquisition creates integration, commercialization, and capital-return execution risk.
Second-quarter non-GAAP operating margin included a $60 million IEEPA tariff-refund benefit, making the reported margin an imperfect indicator of underlying run-rate profitability.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.