Motorcar Parts of America Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Motorcar Parts of America Inc

MPAANASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomotive Parts & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.12

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $10.34Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $195.8M

Enterprise Value $221.4M

Shares Outstanding 19M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA) has successfully returned to profitability in fiscal 2026, driven by strong sales momentum in its brake-related product lines and operational efficiencies. With an aging U.S. vehicle fleet supporting non-discretionary aftermarket repairs, the company is well-positioned to capture incremental market share, especially following competitor challenges. While customer concentration and interest coverage remain key risks, the company's positive guidance for fiscal 2027 and ongoing deleveraging efforts present a compelling turnaround opportunity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$18.67

High · most bullish analyst$20.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$11.0020%

Loss of a major retail customer or severe pricing pressure from top distributors compresses margins, while high interest rates continue to weigh heavily on net income.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$18.0050%

Steady execution of the fiscal 2027 guidance with net sales reaching $780M to $800M, supported by stable demand for rotating electrical and brake products, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$20.0030%

Accelerated ramp-up of new business commitments, successful relocation of heavy-duty manufacturing to Mexico, and faster-than-expected deleveraging drive significant margin expansion and multiple rerating.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Successful return to profitability in fiscal 2026 with net income of $12.39M.
Strong demand tailwinds from an aging U.S. vehicle fleet requiring non-discretionary repairs.
Incremental annualized sales potential of over $100M from new customer commitments by the end of fiscal 2027.
Operational cost-reduction initiatives, including manufacturing transitions to Mexico.

Key Investment Risks

High customer concentration, with the three largest customers accounting for 85% of fiscal 2026 net sales.
Elevated interest expense and weak interest coverage relative to operating cash flows.
Exposure to foreign exchange volatility, particularly regarding lease liabilities and forward contracts.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material reduction in order volumes or bankruptcy of any of the top three retail customers.
Failure to achieve the projected fiscal 2027 operating income guidance of $86M to $91M.
Inability to reduce net bank debt, leading to covenant breaches or restrictive refinancing terms.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.