Morningstar Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Morningstar Inc

MORNNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryFinancial Data & Stock Exchanges

Beta (adjusted)1.00

Intrinsic Value $322.94median of 6 methods · middle span $294-$612based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $191.21Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 69% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+69%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $7.2B

Enterprise Value $8.4B

Shares Outstanding 38.1M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend2 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Morningstar, Inc. continues to demonstrate robust financial performance, driven by its high-margin subscription businesses (Morningstar Direct Platform and PitchBook) and strong cyclical tailwinds in its transaction-based credit ratings business (Morningstar Credit). The company's strategic focus on integrating generative AI across its product suite is strengthening its data moat, improving operational efficiency, and driving margin expansion. Despite near-term headwinds in venture capital fundraising affecting PitchBook's corporate client growth, Morningstar's diversified revenue streams, strong pricing power, and aggressive share repurchase program support a compelling long-term investment case.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$220.00

Mean target$236.67

High · most bullish analyst$260.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong competitive moat built on proprietary, hard-to-replicate global investment datasets and industry-standard benchmarks.
Highly resilient business model with a large proportion of recurring, subscription-based revenue.
Significant margin expansion potential driven by operational leverage, commercial restructuring, and AI-driven automation.
Active capital allocation strategy, highlighted by a robust share repurchase program that reduced outstanding shares by ~4% in Q1 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity of asset-based and transaction-based revenues to global market volatility and interest rate fluctuations.
Intense competition in the financial data and analytics industry from both established players and emerging fintech startups.
Sustained weakness in venture capital and private equity markets impacting PitchBook's core customer segments.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.