Moog Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Moog Inc

MOG.ANYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Beta (adjusted)0.99

Intrinsic Value $276.70median of 6 methods · middle span $194-$546based on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $390.19Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $12.4B

Enterprise Value $13.2B

Shares Outstanding 32M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date20 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend14 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Moog entered the final quarter of fiscal 2026 with strong operating momentum: third-quarter sales reached $1.117 billion, twelve-month backlog increased 23% year over year, adjusted operating margin reached 16.4%, and free cash flow was $133 million. Management consequently raised fiscal 2026 guidance to $4.4 billion of sales, 14.1% adjusted operating margin, adjusted diluted EPS of $11.65 plus or minus $0.10, and approximately 70% free-cash-flow conversion.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$405.00

Mean target$446.40

High · most bullish analyst$520.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$405.0019%

Conversion of backlog slows, supply-chain or inflationary pressures impair execution, and underlying margins fail to replace the third quarter's tariff-related benefit. Sales, adjusted margin or cash conversion consequently finish below management's fiscal 2026 guidance.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$446.4057%

Matches the consensus mean

Moog substantially delivers its fiscal 2026 guidance of $4.4 billion in sales, 14.1% adjusted operating margin, $11.65 adjusted diluted EPS and approximately 70% free-cash-flow conversion. Backlog supports near-term revenue visibility, but growth normalizes from the exceptional third-quarter pace.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$520.0024%

Demand converts from the elevated twelve-month backlog into sustained broad-based growth, while operational-excellence initiatives preserve margin expansion beyond fiscal 2026. Cash conversion remains strong and the one-time tariff benefit is replaced by underlying operating improvement.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Third-quarter fiscal 2026 net sales increased 15% year over year to $1.117 billion, with growth across all four operating segments.
Twelve-month backlog increased 23% year over year to approximately $3.3 billion, providing meaningful near-term demand visibility.
Adjusted operating margin reached 16.4%, adjusted diluted EPS reached $3.72, and third-quarter free cash flow reached $133 million.
Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance for sales, adjusted operating margin, adjusted diluted EPS and free-cash-flow conversion.

Key Investment Risks

Third-quarter operating results included $30 million of claims related to previously incurred tariffs, making reported margin and earnings growth less representative of underlying performance.
The thesis requires successful conversion of a large backlog amid supply-chain constraints, inflationary pressure and program-execution risks.
A meaningful portion of demand depends on government, aerospace and defense program funding, timing and customer procurement decisions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.