Monster Beverage Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Monster Beverage Corp

MNSTNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustrySoft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages

Beta (adjusted)0.68

Intrinsic Value $69.27median of 6 methods · middle span $54-$77based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $42.14Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 64% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+64%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $82.6B

Enterprise Value $80.6B

Shares Outstanding 2B diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Monster Beverage entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter net sales rose 20.2%, the core Monster Energy Drinks segment grew 21.6%, and non-U.S. sales increased 34.6% to approximately 46% of total sales. Gross margin improved modestly to 55.9%, but operating expenses rose faster than sales and reached 26.8% of revenue, while Alcohol Brands sales declined 15.2%.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets23 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$35.00

Mean target$50.04

High · most bullish analyst$57.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$35.0020%

The bear case assumes quarterly sales growth falls below 10%, gross margin declines below 54%, and elevated marketing, freight, aluminum, or distribution costs produce operating deleverage. Persistent Alcohol Brands contraction, regulatory restrictions, or disruption in key bottler and distributor relationships would deepen the downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.0455%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes growth moderates from the unusually strong second-quarter pace but remains in the low double digits, international sales continue gaining mix, and gross margin remains around the mid-50% range. Higher marketing spending and continued Alcohol Brands weakness partially offset core growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$57.0025%

The bull case requires core energy-drink growth and international expansion to remain strong, gross margin to hold near or above 56%, and operating-expense intensity to moderate as recent marketing investments scale. Successful product innovation and continued household-penetration gains would reinforce this outcome.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 net sales increased 20.2%, while diluted EPS increased 19.0%.
Non-U.S. net sales increased 34.6% and represented approximately 46% of quarterly net sales, providing a significant international growth engine.
The core Monster Energy Drinks segment grew 21.6%, and management continued to emphasize product innovation and broader household penetration.

Key Investment Risks

Operating expenses increased 24.7% and reached 26.8% of net sales, compared with 25.8% one year earlier, indicating near-term spending pressure.
Alcohol Brands segment net sales declined 15.2%, showing that diversification outside energy drinks remains challenged.
Results remain exposed to aluminum and freight costs, regulatory restrictions on energy drinks and ingredients, and dependence on bottlers, distributors, retailers, and the relationship with The Coca-Cola Company.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.