Monopar Therapeutics Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Monopar Therapeutics Inc

MNPRNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.31

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $77.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $523.3M

Enterprise Value $470.6M

Shares Outstanding 6.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Monopar Therapeutics is transitioning from a clinical-stage development company to a commercial-ready biopharmaceutical player, anchored by its late-stage asset ALXN1840 for Wilson disease and a promising uPAR-targeted radiopharmaceutical platform (MNPR-101). The strategic appointment of Susan Rodriguez as Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer in March 2026 signals commercial readiness ahead of the planned mid-2026 NDA submission for ALXN1840. Backed by a robust cash runway of $137.5 million (as of March 31, 2026) that funds operations into late 2027, Monopar is well-positioned to execute its regulatory and pre-commercial milestones.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$116.85

High · most bullish analyst$130.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$53.0620%

The FDA issues a Refusal to File or a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for the ALXN1840 NDA, demanding additional clinical data or manufacturing analyses. This delays commercialization, accelerates cash burn, and forces the company to seek dilutive financing before late 2027.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$107.9150%

Monopar successfully submits the NDA for ALXN1840 in mid-2026. The FDA accepts the filing, and the company continues to build out its commercial infrastructure. Phase 1 trials for MNPR-101-Zr and MNPR-101-Lu progress on schedule, meeting safety endpoints and demonstrating expected biodistribution.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$125.0030%

The FDA approves ALXN1840 for Wilson disease without requiring additional clinical trials, leading to a highly successful commercial launch led by Susan Rodriguez. Simultaneously, the MNPR-101 radiopharmaceutical platform (Zr and Lu conjugates) delivers outstanding Phase 1 safety and efficacy data, attracting a major pharmaceutical partnership or acquisition offer.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

ALXN1840 has completed Phase 3 development, meeting its primary endpoint and demonstrating superior clinical and neurological benefits compared to standard of care.
Strong balance sheet with $137.5 million in cash and investments as of Q1 2026, providing a clear runway through December 31, 2027.
Experienced leadership team with a proven track record in orphan drug development (co-founders of BioMarin, Raptor, and Wilson Therapeutics) and commercial execution.
High-potential oncology pipeline with the MNPR-101 platform targeting uPAR-expressing solid tumors using diagnostic (Zr-89) and therapeutic (Lu-177, Ac-225) isotopes.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory risk associated with the upcoming NDA submission for ALXN1840, including potential FDA requests for additional data or CMC clarifications.
Clinical development risk for the early-stage MNPR-101 radiopharmaceutical programs.
Commercial execution risk in establishing a new market footprint for Wilson disease therapies.
Long-term funding requirements if commercialization of ALXN1840 is delayed beyond 2027.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant delay or regulatory rejection (e.g., CRL) of the ALXN1840 NDA by the FDA.
Severe safety signals or lack of efficacy observed in the Phase 1 trials of MNPR-101-Zr or MNPR-101-Lu.
Unexpected cash burn acceleration that shortens the runway to mid-2027 or earlier.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quality Pillars Members

This section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown.

Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.