Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

MPWRNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.46

Intrinsic Value $1,181.42median of 6 methods · middle span $856-$1,508based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,360.97Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $66.9B

Enterprise Value $65.9B

Shares Outstanding 49.5M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Operating momentum is exceptional: Q2 2026 revenue increased 47.6% year over year, Enterprise Data increased 164.3%, every end market grew sequentially, and Q3 revenue guidance calls for $1.14-$1.16 billion. The company is also expanding capacity, sampling 800V data-center products and entering DDR5 components. These strengths are balanced by increasing dependence on Enterprise Data, elevated inventory, geopolitical and supply-chain exposure, and an outstanding material-weakness remediation issue. Valuation anchor or covering-analyst count, the recommendation is Hold rather than a valuation-dependent Buy or Sell.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1,575.00

Mean target$1,829.54

High · most bullish analyst$2,100.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1,575.0018%

Revenue falls below the Q3 guidance floor, gross margin falls below guidance, or inventory reverses above its Q1 level. A demand slowdown in Enterprise Data, trade restrictions, supply disruption or delayed remediation of the material weakness would amplify downside risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$1,829.5456%

Matches the consensus mean

MPS executes within its $1.14-$1.16 billion Q3 revenue guidance and maintains gross margin near the guided range while Enterprise Data remains a large share of sales. Growth continues, but inventory, concentration, supply-chain and internal-control remediation require monitoring.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$2,100.0026%

MPS meets or exceeds its Q3 revenue outlook while preserving guided gross margin. Enterprise Data remains the principal growth engine, and initial DDR5 orders, 800V data-center sampling, broader automotive socket penetration and capacity expansion convert into durable, diversified revenue opportunities.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 revenue reached $980.6 million, increasing 21.9% sequentially and 47.6% year over year, with sequential growth across every end market.
Enterprise Data revenue reached $380.6 million, increasing 44.8% sequentially and 164.3% year over year, driven by AI and server power-management solutions.
MPS disclosed initial DDR5 component orders, sampling of high-voltage AC-to-DC products for 800V data-center architectures, more than 1,500 new automotive sockets shipped year to date and a capacity goal significantly beyond $6 billion.

Key Investment Risks

Enterprise Data represented 38.8% of Q2 revenue, increasing sensitivity to data-center demand, customer programs and order timing.
Internal inventory was $675.8 million and represented 140 days on a current-quarter revenue basis, although days declined sequentially.
The company identifies tariffs, export controls, geopolitical conflict, China-related production exposure and third-party manufacturing capacity as potential impediments.
The latest earnings commentary continued to identify timely and adequate remediation of a material weakness as a risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.