MongoDB Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

MongoDB Inc

MDBNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySystems Software

Beta (adjusted)1.36

Intrinsic Value $183.51median of 6 methods · middle span $24-$518based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $351.73Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 48% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $28.3B

Enterprise Value $27.3B

Shares Outstanding 81.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date1 Dec 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MongoDB entered the September 1 earnings event with strong operating momentum: Q1 FY2027 revenue increased 25%, Atlas revenue increased more than 29%, cRPO increased 69%, and management raised full-year guidance. Its August product releases also strengthened Atlas as a unified operational-data, retrieval, and agent-context platform.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets36 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$272.64

Mean target$406.35

High · most bullish analyst$545.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Revenue falls below the Q2 guidance floor, Atlas growth decelerates materially, or management reduces its full-year outlook. Competitive, security, regulatory, or execution issues could also delay conversion of product innovation into durable consumption growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Q2 revenue remains within management's USD 729-734 million range, Atlas continues to outgrow the company, and full-year revenue guidance remains intact. Customer expansion and strong contracted backlog support growth while investors wait for evidence that the newest AI capabilities materially increase consumption.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

MongoDB exceeds the upper end of Q2 revenue guidance, sustains Atlas growth near or above its Q1 rate, and converts its generally available retrieval, embedding, reranking, streaming-vector-search, and managed-MCP capabilities into additional production workloads.

Key Investment Merits

Q1 FY2027 revenue increased 25% year over year to USD 687.6 million, while Atlas revenue increased more than 29%.
RPO increased 88% and cRPO increased 69% year over year, providing unusually strong contracted-demand indicators.
August 2026 releases made automated embeddings, embedding and reranking APIs, streaming vector search, AI-tool integrations, and the Atlas Managed MCP Server generally available.

Key Investment Risks

Management identifies renewal, expansion, consumption, competition, platform performance, security, privacy, and AI-related regulatory or reputational issues as material uncertainties.
The raised FY2027 revenue range of USD 2.92-2.96 billion creates a higher execution threshold, beginning with Q2 guidance of USD 729-734 million.
The newest AI and agent capabilities are available, but their eventual contribution to paid consumption and durable revenue growth had not yet been quantified as of the research date.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.