Monarch Casino & Resort Inc Dossier
|
SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResorts & Casinos Beta (adjusted)1.22 Intrinsic Value $108.31median of 6 methods · middle span $85-$218based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $116.18Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.1B Enterprise Value $2B Shares Outstanding 18M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI) continues to demonstrate exceptional operational execution, delivering record Q1 2026 financial results with net revenues up 8.9% year-over-year to $136.6 million and diluted EPS rising 44.8% to $1.52. The company's dual-property footprint—Atlantis in Reno and Monarch Black Hawk in Colorado—benefits from strong local economic fundamentals and high-end consumer demand. Monarch maintains an incredibly robust, debt-free balance sheet with $120.1 million in cash as of March 31, 2026, allowing active capital return via dividends and share repurchases. However, the stock's valuation is full, trading near its 5-year highs, and the ongoing appeal of the $74.6 million PCL construction litigation judgment remains a material overhang. Given these balanced factors, a Hold rating is recommended. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$114.00 Mean target$126.50 High · most bullish analyst$144.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $114.0015% The Colorado Court of Appeals upholds the $74.6 million net judgment in favor of PCL Construction, forcing a major cash outflow. Simultaneously, persistent inflation pressures low-income player budgets, leading to margin compression and a contraction in regional gaming volumes. Base CaseCentral scenario $126.5060% Matches the consensus meanMonarch maintains stable market share and high operating efficiency at both properties, offsetting localized labor cost inflation. The PCL litigation appeal proceeds slowly without immediate cash drain, and the company continues its steady capital return program of $1.20 annualized dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $144.0025% Monarch successfully overturns or significantly reduces the PCL litigation liability on appeal, freeing up $78.5 million in recorded liabilities. Concurrently, regional gaming demand accelerates, and the company successfully executes a highly accretive M&A transaction using its strong cash position and undrawn $100 million credit facility. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |