Molina Healthcare Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Molina Healthcare Inc

MOHNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealthcare Plans

Beta (adjusted)0.82

Intrinsic Value $317.43median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $180.85Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 76% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+76%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $9.4B

Enterprise Value $8.2B

Shares Outstanding 49.8M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Molina Healthcare is navigating a pronounced 2026 earnings trough. Second-quarter consolidated medical costs remained elevated, membership and premium revenue declined year over year, and Marketplace performance fell short of management's expectations. Offsetting those pressures, Medicaid results met expectations, Medicare performed better than expected, management raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS floor to $5.25, and it expects Medicaid rate corrections and other premium and earnings building blocks to support profitable growth in 2027.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets17 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$147.00

Mean target$209.12

High · most bullish analyst$266.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$147.0025%

Medicaid rates continue to lag medical-cost trends, Marketplace member acuity and program changes remain unfavorable, and Florida implementation and Medicare product-transition costs delay the anticipated 2027 recovery.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$209.1256%

Matches the consensus mean

FY2026 remains the Medicaid margin trough, with adjusted EPS reaching at least $5.25. Medical-cost performance stabilizes and the company enters 2027 with improving Medicaid economics, partly offset by continued Marketplace volatility.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$266.0019%

Medicaid rate updates catch up with medical-cost trends, Medicare performance remains favorable, Marketplace pressure moderates, and the Florida implementation and traditional MAPD exit clear the way for a stronger 2027 earnings recovery.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Management raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance floor to $5.25 after first-half Medicaid performance and described the Medicaid rate-cost imbalance as stabilizing.
Second-quarter Medicare medical-cost performance was better than management expected, while management identified premium and EPS building blocks for profitable growth in 2027.

Key Investment Risks

The second-quarter 2026 consolidated medical care ratio reached 92.2%, versus 90.4% a year earlier, materially compressing earnings.
Marketplace results were worse than management expected, and the related FY2026 earnings outlook was reduced by $1.50 per share.
FY2026 guidance includes a $1.50-per-share loss from implementing the new Florida Medicaid contract and a $1.00-per-share loss from the traditional MAPD product being exited for 2027.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.