Moelis & Co Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryCapital Markets Beta (adjusted)1.57 Intrinsic Value $64.69median of 5 methods · middle span $57-$86based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $56.95Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 14% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $4.2B Enterprise Value $4B Shares Outstanding 74.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Moelis & Company is a premier independent investment bank that stands to benefit significantly from a cyclical recovery in global M&A and private capital markets. The firm has aggressively expanded its senior talent base, growing its Managing Director headcount to 179 as of early 2026. This investment cycle positions Moelis to capture substantial market share as sponsor-backed transactions and corporate consolidations accelerate. However, near-term performance remains mixed, as evidenced by a Q1 2026 earnings miss driven by elevated non-compensation expenses and a cautious advisory environment. While the firm maintains an exceptionally strong, debt-free balance sheet with $353.7 million in cash, its premium valuation relative to peers and near-term margin pressures justify a Hold rating until top-line acceleration fully materializes. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$71.50 High · most bullish analyst$86.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.00 Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, or credit market disruptions delay the M&A recovery. Elevated compensation and non-compensation costs from recent hiring cycles pressure margins, while a decline in restructuring mandates further dampens advisory revenues, leading to downward revisions in consensus EPS. Base CaseCentral scenario $71.50 Matches the consensus meanM&A activity recovers at a measured pace throughout 2026. Moelis maintains its strong market position in restructuring and private capital advisory, offsetting slower corporate M&A. Non-compensation expenses grow in line with guidance as the firm continues investing in technology and AI, keeping pre-tax margins stable around 15% in the near term. Bull CaseUpside scenario $86.00 A rapid decline in interest rates and easing credit conditions trigger a massive wave of sponsor-led M&A and GP-led secondary transactions. Moelis's newly hired Managing Directors in high-value sectors (Technology, Healthcare, and Energy) ramp up productivity faster than expected, driving operating leverage and expanding pre-tax margins toward historical through-cycle targets of over 20%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |