Modine Manufacturing Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Modine Manufacturing Co

MODNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.51

Intrinsic Value $143.91median of 6 methods · middle span $78-$191based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $189.21Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $10B

Enterprise Value $10.4B

Shares Outstanding 54.1M diluted

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date31 Dec 2026

Last ex-dividend19 Nov 2008

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Modine offers strong structural exposure to data-center cooling, supported by 90% first-quarter Data Centers sales growth, a nearly doubled backlog, and a capacity agreement covering more than $4 billion of products for 2027-2029. However, first-quarter Data Centers gross margin declined to 20.2% as capacity expansion, supply constraints, material costs, and production inefficiencies offset much of the volume benefit. The pending Performance Technologies separation could create a more focused climate-solutions company and reduce debt, but closing remains subject to approvals and other conditions. A Hold recommendation balances the exceptional demand indicators against margin-execution and transaction risks.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets7 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$280.00

Mean target$310.29

High · most bullish analyst$355.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$280.0019%

Supply constraints, higher material costs, capacity-ramp inefficiencies, or customer concentration prevent Data Centers margins from recovering and cause fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA to fall below guidance. A delayed or failed Performance Technologies transaction would preserve portfolio complexity and defer the expected debt reduction and strategic focus.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$310.2958%

Matches the consensus mean

Modine delivers within its reaffirmed fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA range while Data Centers growth remains strong but margin recovery is gradual. The Performance Technologies transaction closes during the fourth quarter of calendar 2026, after which reported guidance and comparability are reset for the continuing business.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$355.0023%

Supply constraints ease, expanded capacity converts the enlarged backlog and long-term customer commitment into sustained growth, and Data Centers margins recover as production scales. The Performance Technologies transaction closes on schedule, leaving a focused climate-solutions platform while Modine shareholders retain an interest in the combined Gentherm business.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Data Centers sales increased 90% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, while management reported three consecutive quarters of record order intake and a backlog that had nearly doubled.
A strategic customer committed to capacity for more than $4 billion of Airedale cooling products during 2027-2029 and provided $165 million upfront to support capacity investment.
The planned Performance Technologies transaction would leave Modine focused on Data Centers and Commercial HVAC while providing Modine shareholders approximately 40% of the combined Gentherm platform, subject to adjustment.

Key Investment Risks

Data Centers gross margin fell to 20.2%, down 960 basis points year over year, because of capacity-expansion costs, supply constraints, production inefficiencies, higher material costs, and warranty effects.
Fiscal 2027 guidance includes Performance Technologies for the full year and is expected to be updated after the transaction closes, creating a material comparability and forecasting reset.
The Performance Technologies transaction requires Gentherm shareholder approval, financing, tax-related conditions, regulatory approvals, and other customary closing conditions.
The long-term capacity agreement is with one strategic data-center customer, increasing the importance of customer demand, execution, and capacity-utilization outcomes.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.