Moderna Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Moderna Inc

MRNANASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.93

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $188.94Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $75.4B

Enterprise Value $74.3B

Shares Outstanding 398M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Moderna's investment profile changed materially in August 2026. FDA approval made mFLUSIVA the company's fifth approved product and broadened its respiratory portfolio, while the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial established proof of concept for an individualized mRNA oncology therapy by meeting recurrence-free-survival and distant-metastasis-free-survival endpoints. These are major platform-validation events. However, the last issuer-displayed close was $137.99 on August 28 after exceptional post-announcement volatility, whereas second-quarter revenue was only $0.1 billion, the quarter produced a $0.8 billion GAAP net loss, and significant regulatory, manufacturing, reimbursement, and commercialization work remains. A Hold balances the stronger product and pipeline position against the valuation reset, continuing cash consumption, incomplete Phase 3 disclosure, and the failed early-success analysis for the norovirus program.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets19 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$25.00

Mean target$50.84

High · most bullish analyst$79.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$25.0023%

Full INTerpath-001 results prove less commercially persuasive than the topline announcement, filing or manufacturing timelines slip, mFLUSIVA adoption is weak, and respiratory-season performance fails to offset ongoing losses. Additional pipeline setbacks, including a prolonged norovirus Phase 3 recovery, increase financing or development-prioritization pressure. The price target is an analyst downside scenario rather than an externally published consensus target.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.8456%

Matches the consensus mean

Intismeran progresses toward filing, but investors wait for complete effect-size, overall-survival, manufacturing, and commercialization details. mFLUSIVA launches during the 2026-2027 season, while respiratory revenue remains seasonal and cash consumption continues. The resulting risk-adjusted value is only moderately above the August 28 issuer-displayed closing price.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$79.0021%

Detailed INTerpath-001 data confirm a compelling and durable benefit with an acceptable safety profile, regulatory submissions advance without material delay, and the combination becomes a new adjuvant-melanoma treatment option. Successful mFLUSIVA uptake and continued respiratory execution diversify revenue while Moderna's additional Phase 2 and Phase 3 oncology studies expand the addressable opportunity. The price target is an analyst scenario rather than an externally published consensus target.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

INTerpath-001 met its primary recurrence-free-survival endpoint and key distant-metastasis-free-survival endpoint, providing the first positive Phase 3 readout for an individualized neoantigen therapy and an mRNA-based cancer therapy.
mFLUSIVA became Moderna's fifth approved product and the first FDA-approved mRNA influenza vaccine, adding influenza to an approved respiratory portfolio that already includes COVID-19 and RSV products.
The pipeline extends beyond a single melanoma study: Moderna and Merck are evaluating intismeran across melanoma, lung, bladder, and kidney cancers, while Moderna also maintains clinical programs in respiratory, latent-virus, oncology, and rare-disease indications.

Key Investment Risks

The INTerpath-001 announcement was topline: detailed effect sizes were not disclosed, overall survival remains under evaluation, and regulatory approval is not assured.
The last issuer-displayed share price was $137.99 after extreme August volatility, increasing the risk that substantial oncology success is already reflected in the valuation.
Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $0.1 billion against a $0.8 billion GAAP net loss, demonstrating continued dependence on cash reserves while new products and pipeline assets mature.
The mRNA-1403 norovirus vaccine did not meet the statistical criteria for early success at its Phase 3 interim analysis, requiring an additional cohort.
The indication for mFLUSIVA in adults aged 65 and older received accelerated approval based on immune responses and requires further research to verify clinical benefit.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.