Mobileye Global Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mobileye Global Inc

MBLYNASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAutomotive Parts & Equipment

Beta (adjusted)1.13

Intrinsic Value $20.13median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 27 Jun 2026

Market Price $7.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 174% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+174%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $6.2B

Shares Outstanding 850.2M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Mobileye Global Inc. remains a dominant force in the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) market, supported by its highly profitable core EyeQ chip business and a robust regulatory tailwind for safety features. However, the company is navigating a complex transition period. Founder and CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua has announced his intention to step down once a successor is found, introducing leadership transition risk. Furthermore, the company is executing a major strategic pivot toward a fully vertically integrated robotaxi model targeting a U.S. launch in 2027. While Q2 2026 financial results beat expectations—boosted by a retroactive Israeli R&D incentive law—near-term growth is constrained by a cautious Q3 outlook with expected year-over-year revenue declines. Given the extended timelines for advanced product rollouts (SuperVision and Chauffeur) and execution risks associated with the robotaxi pivot, a Hold recommendation is warranted until leadership and long-term strategy execution stabilize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets27 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$6.95

Mean target$12.10

High · most bullish analyst$27.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$6.9520%

Delays in the CEO succession process create strategic drift. The pivot to a vertically integrated robotaxi model escalates R&D expenses and capital expenditure beyond expectations, depressing free cash flow. Intense competition from full-stack alternatives (e.g., Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Chinese local players) leads to market share erosion or pricing pressure on EyeQ chips.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$12.1055%

Matches the consensus mean

Mobileye maintains its core ADAS market share with steady EyeQ shipments. The CEO transition proceeds smoothly with minimal disruption to R&D. Full-year 2026 revenue lands within the guided range of $1.97B to $2.02B. Advanced product rollouts progress gradually, but near-term upside is capped by cautious quarterly outlooks and high development costs for next-generation systems.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$27.0025%

Rapid adoption of high-margin advanced platforms (SuperVision and Chauffeur) by major global OEMs, combined with successful execution of the vertically integrated robotaxi model ahead of the 2027 target. The retroactive Israeli R&D tax incentives sustainably expand operating margins, and customer inventory normalization drives stronger-than-expected volume growth.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled market footprint with over 170 million vehicles deployed with EyeQ technology globally.
Strong financial foundation with zero debt and robust cash generation from the core ADAS business.
Favorable margin expansion from the newly enacted Israeli R&D Law, providing significant tax offsets.

Key Investment Risks

Leadership transition uncertainty following the planned departure of founder and CEO Amnon Shashua.
Execution and capital allocation risks associated with the strategic pivot to a vertically integrated robotaxi model.
Intense competitive pressure in the high-level autonomous driving space from well-capitalized semiconductor and tech giants.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Loss of a major Tier-1 OEM customer or cancellation of key SuperVision design wins.
Significant delay in the U.S. robotaxi launch timeline past 2027.
Failure to appoint a qualified successor to the CEO within the next 12 months.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.