MKS Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryScientific & Technical Instruments Beta (adjusted)1.67 Intrinsic Value $252.94median of 6 methods · middle span $132-$340based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $271.24Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $18.3B Enterprise Value $20.4B Shares Outstanding 72.1M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MKS entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased across all three end markets, profitability exceeded guidance, and management guided to another sequential revenue increase in Q3. AI-related investment in semiconductor and advanced-packaging capacity is supporting demand, while new manufacturing capacity and voluntary debt repayments improve MKS's ability to serve that demand and strengthen its balance sheet. Offsetting these merits are substantial remaining debt, semiconductor and electronics-cycle sensitivity, trade and tariff exposure, and execution risk during a rapid capacity ramp. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$270.00 Mean target$413.62 High · most bullish analyst$600.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $270.0018% AI-related orders convert to revenue more slowly than expected, semiconductor or electronics capital spending weakens, or tariff and manufacturing-ramp costs push Q3 revenue below USD 1.31 billion or gross margin below 46%. Lower operating leverage would slow debt reduction and weaken the balance-sheet improvement thesis. Base CaseCentral scenario $413.6255% Matches the consensus meanMKS delivers within its Q3 revenue, gross-margin, and adjusted-EBITDA guidance ranges as broad-based electronics demand continues to recover. Free-cash-flow generation supports further measured deleveraging and capacity investment, but semiconductor cyclicality, tariffs, and remaining indebtedness constrain the risk-adjusted outlook. Bull CaseUpside scenario $600.0027% Demand associated with AI infrastructure, advanced semiconductor processing, and advanced circuit-board packaging remains stronger than management's assumptions; Q3 revenue reaches or exceeds the high end of guidance, gross margin remains at least 47%, and the Malaysia and Guangzhou capacity expansions allow MKS to convert order growth into profitable revenue while continuing voluntary debt repayment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |