Mizuho Financial Group Inc ADR Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryDiversified Banks Beta (adjusted)0.66 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $10.76Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $130.2B Enterprise Value −$41.6T Shares Outstanding 12.1B diluted Next Earnings Date30 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mizuho entered FY2026 with strong operating momentum: first-quarter profit attributable to owners of parent was JPY422.909 billion, up 45.5% year over year, and management subsequently raised full-year profit guidance to JPY1,400 billion. The shareholder-return proposition also strengthened through a JPY150 annual dividend forecast and aggregate FY2026 buyback authorizations of JPY200 billion. Capital remains adequate, with the operating presentation indicating a 10.8% CET1 ratio excluding net unrealized gains. These positives support continued earnings and distribution resilience. The resulting stance is Hold rather than Buy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$8.90 Mean target$10.48 High · most bullish analyst$12.06 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $8.9020% A deterioration in credit quality, adverse securities-market movements, weaker fee activity, or unfavorable interest-rate and currency developments causes guidance reductions and constrains distributions. A CET1 decline toward or below 10% would amplify the downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.4856% Matches the consensus meanMizuho broadly delivers its revised FY2026 profit guidance, maintains CET1 near or above 10%, and executes the JPY150 dividend forecast and announced buybacks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $12.0624% Loan-margin expansion, fee growth, and capital-markets activity remain stronger than management's revised assumptions; FY2026 profit reaches or exceeds current guidance without a material increase in credit costs; CET1 remains comfortably above 10%; and progressive dividends plus buybacks support a higher ADR valuation. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |