Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc ADR

MUFGTokyo Stock Exchange

SectorFinancials

IndustryDiversified Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.61

Intrinsic Value $3.80median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Mar 2026

Market Price $22.62Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 83% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-83%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $254.6B

Shares Outstanding 11.4B diluted

Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend31 Mar 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MUFG enters the final year of its medium-term plan with strong operating momentum: FY2025 produced record profits attributable to owners of parent of JPY 2,427.2 billion, record net operating profit of JPY 2,377.2 billion, and 11.3% ROE. Management is targeting JPY 2.7 trillion of attributable profit and approximately 12% ROE in FY2026, while forecasting a JPY 96 annual dividend. First-quarter attributable profit of JPY 809.4 billion supports the operational case.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets2 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$18.00

Mean target$21.59

High · most bullish analyst$25.18

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$18.0017%

A deterioration in global economic or market conditions, weaker execution, credit normalization, adverse currency or securities-market movements, or higher risk-weighted assets causes MUFG to miss its JPY 2.7 trillion profit and approximately 12% ROE objectives. A management-basis CET1 ratio below 9.5% or a dividend forecast below JPY 96 would materially weaken the capital-return thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$21.5956%

Matches the consensus mean

MUFG broadly delivers its JPY 2.7 trillion FY2026 attributable-profit objective, approaches approximately 12% ROE, and pays the forecast JPY 96 annual dividend while maintaining management-basis CET1 within its 9.5%-10.5% target range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$25.1827%

MUFG exceeds its JPY 2.7 trillion FY2026 attributable-profit objective and approximately 12% ROE target as positive Japanese interest rates, loan and deposit spread benefits, fee income, and international franchises reinforce earnings. Capital remains sufficient for the JPY 96 dividend and further flexible repurchases.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

FY2025 profits attributable to owners of parent reached a record JPY 2,427.2 billion, while net operating profit reached a record JPY 2,377.2 billion and ROE improved to 11.3%.
Management targets JPY 2.7 trillion of attributable profit and approximately 12% ROE in FY2026, with the positive Japanese interest-rate environment and fee-income growth identified as important earnings drivers.
The FY2026 dividend forecast is JPY 96 per common share, up from JPY 86 in FY2025, while MUFG maintains an approximately 40% payout-ratio policy and uses flexible share repurchases.

Key Investment Risks

MUFG identifies intensifying geopolitical and economic fragmentation as a material feature of the operating environment, creating potential credit, market, funding, and cross-border execution pressure.
The approximately 12% ROE objective depends on management assumptions that include Japanese and US policy rates, equity-market levels, and the yen-dollar exchange rate; materially different conditions could impair delivery.
Growth investment and risk-weighted-asset expansion must be balanced against MUFG's 9.5%-10.5% management-basis CET1 target and its dividend and repurchase commitments.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.