Mission Produce Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mission Produce Inc

AVONASDAQ

SectorConsumer Staples

IndustryFood Distribution

Beta (adjusted)0.65

Intrinsic Value $14.18median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $12.82Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $1.1B

Enterprise Value $1.5B

Shares Outstanding 74.9M diluted

Moat Rating None

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Mission Produce remains a global leader in the avocado industry, supported by its vertically integrated model and extensive sourcing network. However, near-term performance is heavily pressured by historically low avocado pricing, supply-demand mismatches in core fruit sizes, and integration risks associated with the newly completed Calavo Growers acquisition. While long-term growth prospects are supported by rising global consumption and expansion into prepared foods, current margin compression warrants a cautious Hold stance until pricing stabilizes and synergies begin to materialize.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets4 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$15.00

Mean target$16.50

High · most bullish analyst$18.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes gradual stabilization of avocado pricing and successful initial integration of Calavo Growers. Volume growth remains robust, driven by strong consumer demand, while margins slowly recover in the second half of fiscal 2026. The company achieves its guided second-half fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $84M to $88M.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Vertical integration and a diversified global sourcing network across Mexico, Peru, and Colombia provide year-round supply capabilities.
The acquisition of Calavo Growers expands the company's footprint into higher-margin prepared foods, private label products, and value-added services.
Strong volume growth dynamics, with avocado sales volumes increasing 15% year-over-year in Q2 fiscal 2026.

Key Investment Risks

High exposure to commodity price volatility, as evidenced by a 36% drop in average avocado selling prices in Q2 fiscal 2026.
Supply chain and operational mismatches, such as harvest delays and fruit size imbalances, which compress per-unit margins.
Integration and execution risks related to the approximately $465 million cash and stock acquisition of Calavo Growers.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Sustained oversupply of Mexican avocados leading to prolonged depressed pricing.
Failure to achieve projected cost and operational synergies from the Calavo Growers acquisition.
Severe weather events or agricultural pests in key growing regions like Peru or Michoacán, Mexico.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.