Mirion Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Mirion Technologies Inc

MIRNYSE

SectorIndustrials

IndustrySpecialty Industrial Machinery

Beta (adjusted)1.03

Intrinsic Value $10.63median of 5 methods · middle span $9-$14based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $14.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 26% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.6B

Enterprise Value $3.6B

Shares Outstanding 249M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Mirion Technologies is a global leader in radiation detection, measurement, and monitoring solutions, serving critical nuclear power and medical markets. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from secular growth trends, including the global nuclear energy renaissance driven by AI data center power demands and net-zero mandates, alongside expanding oncology care needs. With equipment present in over 95% of the world's nuclear reactors and 80% of global cancer centers, Mirion possesses a highly resilient, recurring-revenue business model with substantial competitive moats. Recent strategic acquisitions, such as Paragon Energy Solutions and Certrec, significantly expand its addressable market and capabilities, positioning the company for robust top-line expansion and long-term margin compounding.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$22.00

Mean target$24.60

High · most bullish analyst$28.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$22.00

Acquisition integration challenges and elevated cost structures lead to persistent margin pressure, keeping Adjusted EBITDA margins below 24%. Delays in nuclear project approvals or a slowdown in healthcare capital expenditures restrict organic growth to low single digits, while high financial leverage limits capital allocation flexibility.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$24.60

Matches the consensus mean

Mirion successfully executes on its reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance, delivering total revenue growth of 22% to 24% (5% to 7% organic) and Adjusted EBITDA margins of 25% to 26%. Steady demand in nuclear safety and medical QA segments supports a stable backlog of over $1.1 billion, while the company gradually integrates recent acquisitions and maintains its market-leading position.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$28.00

Accelerated adoption of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and large-scale nuclear builds globally, combined with rapid synergy realization from the Paragon and Certrec acquisitions, drives organic revenue growth above 10% annually. Operating leverage takes hold, expanding Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 30% by 2029, while strong free cash flow generation enables rapid deleveraging and opportunistic share buybacks.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Unrivaled market leadership with presence in over 95% of global nuclear reactors and 80% of cancer centers.
Highly resilient business model with approximately 75% of revenue being recurring or replacement in nature.
Strong secular tailwinds from the global nuclear energy renaissance, driven by AI data center power demands and decarbonization goals.
Significant expansion of addressable market and capabilities through high-value acquisitions like Paragon and Certrec.

Key Investment Risks

Integration and execution risks associated with an acquisition-led growth strategy.
Elevated financial leverage with total debt of approximately $1.23 billion.
Uneven quarterly profitability and potential short-term margin pressure from cost inflation.
Regulatory and compliance risks inherent in highly regulated nuclear and medical end markets.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Organic revenue growth turning negative or staying below 3% for consecutive quarters.
Adjusted EBITDA margins consistently failing to meet the 25% threshold.
A material decline in the nuclear segment backlog, indicating a slowdown in new reactor projects or SMR adoption.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.