Mid Penn Bancorp Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.64 Intrinsic Value $32.08median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.91Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 11% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $909.8M Shares Outstanding 26.2M diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend3 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) presents a compelling growth story driven by aggressive and strategic M&A, expanding its footprint into the high-opportunity greater Philadelphia metropolitan area and southern New Jersey. The recent completions of the 1st Colonial Bancorp and Cumberland Advisors acquisitions have scaled total assets to $7.0 billion and significantly diversified revenue streams through wealth management fees. While Q1 2026 GAAP earnings were impacted by merger-related expenses, core profitability remains robust with a strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 3.80% and solid asset quality (NPAs at 0.55%). Supported by historically strong insider buying and a consistent dividend track record, MPB is well-positioned for long-term capital appreciation as cost synergies are realized. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$39.00 Mean target$40.33 High · most bullish analyst$41.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $31.0020% Integration delays and elevated noninterest expenses from M&A activity depress earnings. Intensified regional competition in Philadelphia limits deposit growth, forcing reliance on higher-cost wholesale funding and compressing NIM below 3.40%, while credit quality deteriorates in the commercial real estate portfolio. Base CaseCentral scenario $37.1750% Successful integration of recent acquisitions with projected cost synergies achieved over 12-18 months. Moderate loan growth in the Philadelphia market offsets organic contraction in legacy central PA markets, maintaining stable asset quality and supporting a steady core EPS expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $39.0030% Rapid integration of 1st Colonial and William Penn acquisitions yields higher-than-expected cost synergies. Wealth management expansion via Cumberland Advisors accelerates fee income growth, driving core ROAA above 1.10% and expanding NIM beyond 3.90% in a stabilizing interest rate environment. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |