Microsoft Corporation Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySystems Software Beta (adjusted)1.08 Intrinsic Value $572.75median of 6 methods · middle span $492-$630based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $512.80Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.8T Enterprise Value $3.8T Shares Outstanding 7.5B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Microsoft enters fiscal 2027 with strong operating momentum: fiscal 2026 revenue increased 18%, operating income increased 21%, Azure grew 43% in the latest quarter, commercial remaining performance obligation reached $678 billion, and Microsoft 365 Copilot exceeded 30 million paid seats. The counterweight is an exceptionally investment-intensive AI buildout: quarterly capital expenditures were $41 billion, management expects more than $50 billion in fiscal 2027 first quarter, and Microsoft Cloud gross margin declined to 65%. A Hold recommendation balances the durable cloud and AI demand indicators against execution, capacity, margin and valuation uncertainty. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$400.00 Mean target$569.56 High · most bullish analyst$870.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $400.0019% Capacity, component costs or slower customer monetization weaken the return on AI infrastructure; Azure growth falls below guidance; Copilot paid-seat growth stalls; and the fiscal 2027 operating-margin decline reaches at least one percentage point. Weakness in Windows and XBOX would provide less diversification against slower commercial growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $569.5658% Matches the consensus meanAzure remains the principal growth engine, Microsoft 365 Copilot adoption continues, and commercial backlog supports visibility, but elevated infrastructure spending and product-usage costs constrain margin expansion. Bull CaseUpside scenario $870.0023% Azure sustains growth near or above fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance as capacity additions are monetized quickly; Microsoft 365 Copilot continues expanding beyond 30 million paid seats; and model, silicon and infrastructure efficiencies offset part of the AI investment burden. Under this outcome, backlog conversion and consumption-based monetization support durable growth without a material margin reset. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |