Micron Technology, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.82 Intrinsic Value $356.00median of 6 methods · middle span $277-$533based on filings through 28 May 2026 Market Price $1,097.39Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 68% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-68%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2T Enterprise Value $1.2T Shares Outstanding 1.1B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date23 Dec 2026 Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Micron entered the fiscal 2026 year-end reporting window with exceptional operating momentum: fiscal Q3 revenue was $41.456 billion, GAAP gross margin reached 84.6%, and management guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $50.0 billion ± $1.0 billion with approximately 86% gross margin. HBM4 was already in high-volume shipment, while multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements may improve earnings visibility. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$361.00 Mean target$1,501.98 High · most bullish analyst$2,200.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $361.0017% Fiscal Q4 revenue falls below $49 billion or GAAP gross margin retreats below the fiscal Q3 level of 84.6%, indicating weaker demand, pricing, mix or execution than management's outlook implies. Continued high capital investment would then increase downside sensitivity despite the strong fiscal Q3 cash generation. Base CaseCentral scenario $1,501.9858% Matches the consensus meanFiscal Q4 revenue remains within management's $49-$51 billion guidance range, gross margin is approximately 86%, and current HBM4 and data-center product ramps continue without a material schedule disruption. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2,200.0025% HBM4 shipments, broader qualification activity and Strategic Customer Agreements translate into durable demand and improved visibility. Fiscal Q4 revenue reaches or exceeds the $51 billion upper end of guidance, gross margin meets or exceeds approximately 86%, and HBM4E remains on schedule for calendar-2027 volume production. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |