Miami International Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Miami International Holdings Inc

MIAXNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryCapital Markets

Beta (adjusted)1.54

Intrinsic Value $29.63median of 6 methods · middle span $17-$41based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $33.75Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 12% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.3B

Enterprise Value $2.7B

Shares Outstanding 101.8M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) represents a high-growth, technology-driven disruptor in the global financial exchange landscape. By leveraging its proprietary, high-speed trading infrastructure, MIAX has successfully captured significant market share in the highly competitive U.S. options market, reaching a record 17.1% year-to-date market share through May 2026. The company's recent transition to the public markets, combined with its expansion into futures (via the OCC clearing agreement and Bloomberg index products) and international listings (via TISE and BSX), provides a robust multi-asset growth runway. With a cash-rich balance sheet and expanding operating leverage, MIAX is well-positioned to outpace legacy exchange operators.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$45.00

Mean target$52.00

High · most bullish analyst$62.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$44.0020%

Intense competitive pressure from incumbent giants (Cboe, Nasdaq, ICE) leads to fee compression and a decline in options market share below 15%. The futures segment fails to gain traction despite the OCC clearing agreement, and elevated technology and regulatory compliance costs push adjusted operating expenses above guidance, compressing EBITDA margins below 45%.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$52.0050%

Matches the consensus mean

MIAX maintains its strong options market share of 17% to 18% while executing on its 2026 guidance. The company successfully integrates the TISE acquisition and stabilizes its futures segment through the rollout of the Bloomberg 100 and B500 index contracts. Adjusted EBITDA margins remain stable at approximately 50% to 51%, supported by disciplined expense management within the guided $265 million to $275 million range.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$61.0030%

MIAX accelerates market share gains in U.S. options toward 20% driven by the continued ramp of the MIAX Sapphire physical trading floor. Concurrently, the newly launched Bloomberg Equity Index futures on MIAX Futures experience rapid institutional adoption due to OCC margin efficiencies, driving a significant mix shift toward high-margin proprietary derivatives. Operating margins expand beyond 55% as the scalability of the proprietary technology platform is fully realized.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary, state-of-the-art technology platform delivering industry-leading throughput, low latency, and reliability.
Proven track record of organic market share expansion in U.S. options, growing from 16.0% in Q1 2025 to 17.3% in Q1 2026.
Strong balance sheet with $551 million in cash and less than $2 million in outstanding debt as of Q1 2026, providing immense capital allocation flexibility.
Strategic expansion into high-margin proprietary products, including the exclusive Bloomberg Equity Index futures license.

Key Investment Risks

High concentration of revenue in the U.S. options segment, making the company vulnerable to shifts in options industry volumes.
Intense competition from well-capitalized incumbent exchange operators with deep liquidity pools.
Regulatory risks, including potential changes to options regulatory fees or market structure rules that could impact transaction economics.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

U.S. options market share falling below 15% for three consecutive months.
Failure of the Bloomberg Equity Index futures contracts to achieve meaningful liquidity within 12 months of launch.
Adjusted operating expenses consistently exceeding the upper bound of the $265 million to $275 million guidance range.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.