MI Homes Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryResidential Construction Beta (adjusted)1.41 Intrinsic Value $104.77median of 5 methods · middle span $70-$110based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $135.27Price as of 1 Oct 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.4B Enterprise Value $3.6B Shares Outstanding 26M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend27 Jun 2008 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE: MHO) is well-positioned to navigate the challenging U.S. housing market, characterized by high mortgage rates and affordability constraints. Celebrating its 50th year in business in 2026, the company benefits from a highly efficient, vertically integrated business model combining land development, homebuilding, and financial services. Its affordable 'Smart Series' product line continues to capture strong demand from first-time homebuyers, representing 47% of Q1 2026 sales. Backed by a robust balance sheet with record shareholders' equity of $3.2 billion, substantial cash reserves, and a negative net debt-to-capital ratio, M/I Homes possesses the financial flexibility to opportunistically acquire land and expand its community count by an expected 5% in 2026. Despite near-term gross margin pressure from buyer incentives and rising lot costs, the company's superior profitability, disciplined capital allocation, and active share buybacks support a compelling valuation and long-term upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$165.00 Mean target$170.67 High · most bullish analyst$175.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Mortgage rates spike back toward 7.5%-8.0%, severely dampening affordability and increasing cancellation rates. Gross margins compress below 20% as the company is forced to offer deeper incentives and rate buydowns to sustain sales volume. Land write-downs or inventory charges occur, and community count growth stalls due to delayed land development. Base CaseCentral scenario The housing market remains constrained by high mortgage rates, but structural undersupply continues to drive demand. M/I Homes successfully expands its average community count by 5% in 2026. The Smart Series maintains a steady share of sales around 45%-50%, capturing first-time buyers. Gross margins stabilize around 22%-23% as lot costs level off and incentive levels moderate. Active share repurchases continue to reduce outstanding float, driving steady EPS growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |