MGM Resorts International Dossier - Source-backed chat

MGM Resorts International

MGMNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryResorts & Casinos

Beta (adjusted)1.19

Intrinsic Value $31.89median of 5 methods · middle span $15-$40based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $30.47Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 5% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $7.8B

Enterprise Value $11.3B

Shares Outstanding 253.3M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Dec 2022

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

The issuer-hosted analyst feed reports a Buy consensus, and the operating evidence is constructive but mixed. MGM delivered record second-quarter consolidated revenue, Las Vegas Strip revenue growth, record Regional Operations same-store revenue and 20% MGM Digital revenue growth. Offsetting those positives, Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA declined, MGM China Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 15%, and MGM Digital remained loss-making. People Incorporated's $48.30-per-share cash proposal supplies a material event catalyst, but MGM has warned that an agreement or completed transaction is not assured.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$43.00

Mean target$50.57

High · most bullish analyst$60.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$43.0018%

The acquisition proposal does not produce a transaction, while RevPAR, consolidated Adjusted EBITDA or digital profitability deteriorates from second-quarter 2026 levels.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$50.5755%

Matches the consensus mean

MGM remains independent while record revenue and Las Vegas growth are partly offset by lower consolidated profitability, weaker MGM China EBITDAR and continued MGM Digital losses.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$60.0027%

MGM reaches a definitive agreement at the stated $48.30-per-share cash proposal or on improved terms. The operating backdrop supports negotiating leverage through record consolidated revenue, continued Las Vegas Strip growth and rapid MGM Digital revenue expansion.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue reached a record $4.451 billion, with Las Vegas Strip Resorts revenue increasing 3% and Regional Operations same-store revenue increasing 3%.
MGM Digital revenue increased 20% year over year to $196.308 million, indicating continued expansion of the consolidated online business.
People Incorporated proposed acquiring the shares it does not already own for $48.30 per share in cash, creating a clearly defined potential transaction catalyst.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA declined to $610.387 million from $647.514 million despite record revenue.
MGM China Segment Adjusted EBITDAR declined 15% year over year to $256.709 million.
MGM Digital recorded a $30.884 million Segment Adjusted EBITDAR loss in the second quarter of 2026.
MGM explicitly stated that the People Incorporated proposal may not result in an agreement or completed transaction.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.