MGIC Investment Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

MGIC Investment Corp

MTGNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.77

Intrinsic Value $19.95median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$61based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $26.37Price as of 1 Oct 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 24% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $5.4B

Enterprise Value $5.8B

Shares Outstanding 207.4M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend5 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) remains a solid, highly disciplined player in the private mortgage insurance (PMI) industry, characterized by robust capital returns and strong credit quality. However, the company faces persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including elevated mortgage rates that are expected to keep insurance in force (IIF) and new insurance written (NIW) relatively flat through 2026. While aggressive share buybacks (including a newly authorized $750 million program) and a steady dividend yield support the stock's valuation, top-line growth remains constrained, and competitive pricing pressures limit margin expansion. Consequently, a Hold rating is warranted as the market balances strong capital management against a stagnant housing origination environment.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$28.00

Mean target$31.00

High · most bullish analyst$35.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$28.00

A broader economic slowdown or rising unemployment leads to a significant spike in mortgage delinquencies and default claims, driving up net losses incurred. Simultaneously, persistent high rates freeze the housing market further, causing a contraction in IIF. Increased price competition among PMI peers compresses premium yields, eroding profitability and forcing a reduction in capital return activities.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$31.00

Matches the consensus mean

Mortgage rates remain elevated, leading to flat IIF and NIW growth in 2026. Premium yields remain stable, and operating expenses are managed within the guided $190 million to $200 million range. Share buybacks continue to serve as the primary driver of EPS growth, offsetting minor declines in net income. The stock trades near its historical single-digit forward P/E multiple.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$35.00

A rapid decline in mortgage rates triggers a surge in home purchase and refinance originations, driving double-digit growth in NIW. Concurrently, the housing market remains resilient with low unemployment, keeping default rates near historic lows and allowing further favorable loss reserve developments. Aggressive share repurchases under the $750 million program accelerate EPS growth beyond consensus expectations.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Aggressive capital return profile, highlighted by a newly authorized $750 million share repurchase program and a consistent dividend payout.
Strong regulatory capital position with a substantial PMIERs excess cushion of approximately $2.5 billion.
High annual persistency rate (84%) supporting stable in-force portfolio yields despite lower new origination volumes.

Key Investment Risks

High sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, particularly mortgage interest rates and U.S. housing market dynamics.
Intense competition within the private mortgage insurance sector, which can lead to aggressive pricing and premium yield compression.
Risk of rising delinquency rates and higher claim severity in the event of an economic downturn or weakening employment market.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material deterioration in credit quality leading to a sharp spike in the delinquency rate beyond historical averages.
A significant reduction or suspension of the share buyback program due to regulatory capital constraints or holding company liquidity pressure.
Aggressive price-cutting by major competitors (e.g., Radian, Essent, Enact) that forces a substantial decline in MGIC's premium yields.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.