MGE Energy Inc Dossier
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SectorUtilities IndustryUtilities - Regulated Electric Beta (adjusted)0.81 Intrinsic Value $86.46median of 4 methods · middle span $77-$96based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $70.05Price as of 1 Oct 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 23% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $3.5B Shares Outstanding 36.7M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE) represents a highly stable, defensive utility holding company operating as a regulated monopoly in south-central and western Wisconsin. The company boasts an exceptional dividend track record, having achieved 50 consecutive years of dividend increases. However, its premium valuation relative to its modest growth profile limits near-term upside. While its clean energy transition (targeting an 80% carbon reduction by 2030 and net-zero by 2050) supports rate-base expansion, recent equity dilution from a $250 million stock offering and broader utility sector headwinds from elevated interest rates warrant a neutral stance. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$76.00 Mean target$78.25 High · most bullish analyst$81.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case involves persistent inflation and elevated interest rates, which would continue to pressure utility sector valuations and increase financing costs for MGEE's capital plan. Regulatory friction, such as lower-than-expected allowed ROEs or disallowed capital expenditures by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin, would compress margins. Furthermore, supply chain disruptions or tariff-related cost increases in solar procurement could delay key clean energy projects, slowing down earnings growth. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes MGE Energy successfully executes its $1.9 billion capital expenditure plan from 2026 to 2030, focusing on renewable energy and battery storage. This capital deployment is expected to drive steady rate-base growth of approximately 5-6% annually. Constructive regulatory relationships with the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin will allow for timely cost recovery, maintaining a stable return on equity (ROE) of around 10-11%. Dividend growth is projected to continue at a 5% compound annual rate, balancing capital investment with shareholder returns. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |