Metlife Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryLife & Health Insurance Beta (adjusted)0.85 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $94.35Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $60B Enterprise Value $41.1B Shares Outstanding 643.6M diluted Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary MetLife entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter adjusted earnings rose 15%, adjusted EPS rose 20%, adjusted premiums, fees and other revenues excluding pension risk transfers grew 5%, and adjusted ROE reached 17%. Capital returns are also supportive, with a 4.4% dividend increase and a new $3 billion repurchase authorization. However, the shares closed at $96.51 on August 28, near their $100.93 52-week high. The resulting Hold recommendation recognizes sound execution while declining to assert unverified upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$84.00 Mean target$103.88 High · most bullish analyst$119.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $84.0020% Adverse underwriting, weaker capital markets or investment-credit deterioration reduce organic growth and push adjusted ROE below the 15% lower bound of the New Frontier commitment. Lower subsidiary distributions could then constrain repurchases or dividend growth. Base CaseCentral scenario $103.8850% Matches the consensus meanOperating performance normalizes from the strong second quarter but remains consistent with the New Frontier framework: adjusted ROE stays within the 15%-17% commitment, organic revenue remains positive and capital returns continue without stressing the $3.0-$4.0 billion holding-company liquidity buffer. Bull CaseUpside scenario $119.0030% MetLife sustains double-digit adjusted EPS growth and 15%-17% adjusted ROE as favorable underwriting, broad volume growth and higher investment income reinforce one another. Continued execution across Group Benefits, Asia and Latin America, combined with the new repurchase authorization and dividend growth, supports superior per-share compounding. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |