Merlin Inc Dossier
Outlook & Key Dates
Estimates, guidance, catalysts, and upcoming events
Analyst Estimates Learn more →
5-Yr Fwd EPS Growth
-25.2%projected annual EPS growth
Analyst Coverage
4analysts covering
FY EPS (est.)
-$1.22next fiscal year
Monitoring Framework
Key Performance Indicators
Total Revenue Quarterly1MTarget: 60% annual revenue growth over the next 5 years
GAAP Net Loss Quarterly-90.4M
Adjusted EBITDA Loss Quarterly-23.3M
Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Short-Term Investments Quarterly183M
Watch Items
- C-130J Autonomy Program with USSOCOMTrigger: Completion of aircraft integration phase following Critical Design Review (CDR) approvalAction: Monitor progress of flight testing and milestone achievements under the $105M+ IDIQ contract ceiling.
- Civil Certification and Regulatory MilestonesTrigger: SOI 1 & 2 milestones with the New Zealand CAA and FAAAction: Track regulatory approvals and flight trials to assess commercial readiness for civil airspace integration.
- Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) CollaborationTrigger: Platform selection and definitive commercial agreement under the signed MoUAction: Evaluate engineering collaboration and civil certification path for Part 25 freight aircraft under the Condor product family.
Research as of 24 Jul 2026