Merck & Co Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.46 Intrinsic Value $70.18median of 6 methods · middle span $28-$109based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $143.81Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 51% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-51%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $354.8B Enterprise Value $401.3B Shares Outstanding 2.5B diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Merck entered the second half of 2026 with 5% reported second-quarter sales growth, continued expansion of the KEYTRUDA franchise, rapid WINREVAIR growth and an important new cardiovascular launch following approval of LIPFENDRA. These strengths are balanced by substantial dependence on KEYTRUDA, execution demands across multiple launches and acquisitions, and clinical and regulatory uncertainty across the replacement pipeline. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$105.00 Mean target$137.73 High · most bullish analyst$155.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $105.0025% The downside case assumes KEYTRUDA franchise growth turns non-positive, newer products fail to compensate, or clinical, regulatory and integration setbacks cause Merck to reduce the lower bound of its 2026 sales guidance below USD 66.3 billion. Base CaseCentral scenario $137.7355% Matches the consensus meanThe modal case assumes Merck remains within its USD 66.3-67.3 billion 2026 sales outlook, KEYTRUDA growth moderates but remains positive, and WINREVAIR plus newer launches provide incremental diversification. Bull CaseUpside scenario $155.0020% The upside case assumes that KEYTRUDA and KEYTRUDA QLEX retain positive growth while WINREVAIR, LIPFENDRA and acquired pipeline assets broaden the growth base. Successful regulatory conversion of late-stage oncology programs would strengthen confidence that portfolio renewal can offset future pressure on mature products. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |