MercadoLibre, Inc. Dossier - Source-backed chat

MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELINASDAQ

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryBroadline Retail

Beta (adjusted)1.20

Intrinsic Value $3,349.88median of 6 methods · middle span $1,632-$3,889based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $1,685.12Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 99% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (+99%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $85.4B

Enterprise Value $92.4B

Shares Outstanding 50.7M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend28 Dec 2017

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

MercadoLibre entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 net revenue exceeded $10 billion, GMV reached $21.9 billion, items sold reached 795.4 million, and the credit portfolio expanded to $16.4 billion. The principal offset is profitability and risk absorption: operating margin was 6.7% while rapid credit growth and continued investment increase execution sensitivity.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets24 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$1,750.00

Mean target$2,256.54

High · most bullish analyst$2,800.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$1,750.0022%

Growth decelerates as comparisons become harder, while operating margin remains compressed and the rapidly expanding credit portfolio produces higher delinquencies or provisioning needs. Currency, macroeconomic, competitive, or regulatory pressures could amplify the resulting earnings downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$2,256.5458%

Matches the consensus mean

Commerce and fintech continue expanding at strong rates, but deliberate reinvestment and the cost of funding rapid credit growth constrain near-term margin expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$2,800.0020%

Commerce engagement remains strong, logistics and technology investment deepen MercadoLibre's competitive advantages, and Mercado Pago scales credit and financial services without material deterioration in asset quality. Revenue growth remains above 30%, while operating leverage begins to emerge from the current investment cycle.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Q2 2026 net revenue and financial income surpassed $10 billion and grew 50% year over year, demonstrating continued ecosystem monetization.
Q2 GMV reached $21.9 billion and items sold reached 795.4 million, indicating broad commerce engagement and transaction growth.
The credit portfolio reached $16.4 billion while the 15-to-90-day NPL ratio remained 7.0%, supporting the case for continued fintech expansion if credit quality remains controlled.

Key Investment Risks

Q2 operating margin of 6.7% shows that elevated reinvestment can materially limit near-term earnings conversion despite rapid revenue growth.
Credit-portfolio growth to $16.4 billion increases exposure to underwriting, provisioning, liquidity, funding, and macroeconomic risks.
Operations across Latin America expose results to currency volatility, inflation, changing regulation, political conditions, and uneven consumer-credit cycles.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.