Medtronic Plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Medtronic Plc

MDTNYSE

SectorHealth Care

IndustryHealth Care Equipment

Beta (adjusted)0.70

Intrinsic Value $99.33median of 6 methods · middle span $81-$109based on filings through 31 Jul 2026

Market Price $86.44Price as of 1 Oct 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $110.6B

Enterprise Value $137B

Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date17 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend26 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Medtronic enters fiscal 2027 with its strongest annual organic revenue growth in a decade, high-single-digit FY27 adjusted EPS growth guidance, rapid Cardiac Ablation Solutions expansion, new indications and reimbursement opportunities, and a 49-year record of dividend increases. The offset is weaker adjusted operating-margin performance in FY26, tariff and portfolio-separation complexity, and meaningful execution risk around converting the Affera, Hugo, Symplicity and other pipeline opportunities into profitable growth.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets25 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$78.00

Mean target$98.44

High · most bullish analyst$121.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Revenue or adjusted EPS falls below guidance as cardiac-ablation growth decelerates sharply, regulatory or commercialization milestones slip, tariffs and transaction costs remain elevated, and operating-margin pressure persists. Portfolio-separation and acquisition execution could further dilute management attention and expected earnings growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

Medtronic delivers within its 6.75%-7.25% organic revenue-growth and $5.90-$6.00 adjusted EPS guidance ranges. Cardiac ablation remains a major growth driver while Hugo and Symplicity scale gradually, but margin recovery is moderated by tariffs, acquisitions and separation-related complexity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Growth exceeds the upper end of FY27 guidance as Affera sustains strong adoption, expanded ventricular-arrhythmia indications broaden its addressable market, Hugo gains additional U.S. clearances, and Symplicity benefits from national Medicare coverage. Better product mix and operating leverage offset tariff and transaction costs.

Key Investment Merits

FY26 organic revenue increased 5.8%, the strongest annual top-line growth Medtronic reported in ten years, and FY27 guidance calls for further acceleration.
Cardiac Ablation Solutions grew 78% globally in the fourth quarter, while the expanded European Sphere-9 indication and active U.S. ventricular-tachycardia pivotal trial create additional runway.
The pipeline includes U.S. expansion submissions for Hugo robotic surgery and broader commercialization opportunities for Affera, Symplicity and Stealth AXiS.
FY26 free cash flow was $5.426 billion, and the annualized dividend increased to $2.88 per share, extending the dividend-growth record to 49 consecutive years.

Key Investment Risks

FY26 non-GAAP operating margin declined 130 basis points, with fourth-quarter pressure that included tariff and MiniMed-related effects.
FY27 guidance assumes continued Diabetes consolidation for the full year and incorporates acquisition, tariff, interest, tax and foreign-exchange effects, increasing forecast complexity.
Important growth opportunities remain dependent on regulatory approvals, indication expansion, reimbursement, clinician adoption and successful commercialization.
The MiniMed IPO began the transition toward a standalone diabetes company, but the remaining separation structure and timing introduce execution and accounting complexity.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.