Medpace Holdings Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryDiagnostics & Research Beta (adjusted)1.11 Intrinsic Value $509.52median of 6 methods · middle span $316-$623based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $598.08Price as of 1 Oct 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 15% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $16.7B Enterprise Value $16.2B Shares Outstanding 28.1M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Medpace entered the second half of 2026 with solid operating momentum: second-quarter revenue increased 17.2%, net new business awards increased 28.2%, book-to-bill was 1.13, and backlog reached $3.014 billion. The company also raised or maintained a constructive full-year outlook of $2.805-$2.885 billion of revenue and $17.25-$17.95 of diluted EPS. However, backlog growth of 4.9% was materially slower than current revenue growth. A valuation-dependent Buy or Sell conclusion therefore is not sufficiently supported; Hold is appropriate pending confirmation that bookings and backlog can sustain growth and that the market price offers an adequate return. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$370.00 Mean target$581.83 High · most bullish analyst$692.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $370.0020% Clinical-program cancellations, delays or weaker biotechnology funding push book-to-bill below 1.0, backlog contracts, and conversion or pricing pressure drives EBITDA margin below 20%. Revenue and earnings would then risk falling below management's 2026 guidance and the equity could de-rate. Base CaseCentral scenario $581.8355% Matches the consensus meanRevenue remains within the company's 2026 guidance range while book-to-bill stays near 1.0-1.1 and backlog grows at a modest rate. Margin resilience and share repurchases support per-share results, but slower backlog growth limits confidence in sustained high-teens revenue growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $692.0025% Net new awards continue to grow faster than revenue, book-to-bill remains above 1.0, backlog conversion stays near the second-quarter rate, and profitability remains around or above the reported 21.7% EBITDA margin. Under this outcome, Medpace reaches the upper portion of its 2026 guidance and exits the year with improving backlog growth. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |